Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several predefined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground's daily archive for that specific station and date, making this a straightforward factual resolution tied to a single, verifiable data point rather than forecasts or modelled outcomes.

New York's June temperatures typically cluster between 75–85°F, with occasional peaks above 90°F during heat waves. Historical precedent shows that 12 June itself has seen highs ranging from 68°F to 91°F across recent decades, depending on whether Atlantic systems or continental heat domes dominate the pattern. The current 100% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing near-certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded—a rational baseline given that LaGuardia operates continuously and weather always produces a measurable high. For programmatic traders, this means the actual signal lies in which temperature band resolves, not whether resolution occurs.

The key variable is whether early-to-mid June 2026 experiences typical seasonal conditions or an anomalous heat event. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days ahead, will be the primary catalyst for probability shifts. Traders monitoring NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for upper-level ridge positioning and Atlantic tropical activity patterns can anticipate whether the market should reprice toward higher or lower bands. Conditional orders keyed to specific forecast updates—particularly the 10-day outlook issued around 2 June—would allow systematic exposure without manual monitoring.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.