Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data archived by Weather Underground, which maintains continuous records for this major New York City airport hub. For programmatic traders, the key dependency is accessing the Wunderground API or scraping the daily history page to confirm the exact peak temperature once the settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date.

New York's June weather typically ranges between 75–85°F, with occasional peaks above 90°F during heat waves. Historical June records at LaGuardia show a maximum of 96°F (set in 1994), though readings in the mid-80s dominate most years. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity; comparing this against climatological normals and recent June patterns would reveal whether the market has simply not attracted sufficient liquidity or reflects genuine consensus on an unusually narrow outcome.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service forecasts released in early June 2026, particularly any heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns affecting the Northeast. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, potentially influencing moisture and convection patterns. For conditional order strategies, setting triggers based on NWS outlooks issued 5–7 days prior would allow automated position adjustments as the settlement date approaches and forecast confidence increases.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.