Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026, currently framed by a persistent heat dome that has pushed New York’s heat index to 106°F in Central Park and threatened to reach 110°F by Friday[2]. With the crowd-implied probability for the 74–75°F range sitting at only 4% YES, traders must evaluate whether this low figure reflects genuine confidence in higher temperatures or a mispricing of the current heatwave’s intensity.

Historically, July highs in NYC under similar heat-dome conditions have consistently breached 90°F, with LaGuardia reaching 104°F on 2 July 2026 and a record midnight temperature of 94°F breaking the 2013 benchmark[4][5]. The current 4% probability for the 74–75°F bracket appears starkly low when compared to these recent extremes, suggesting the market may be underestimating the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 95°F, especially as the heat dome remains locked over the city until 7 July[3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for the heat index peak and any sudden shifts in the high-pressure system, as relief is forecast to begin later in the holiday weekend[2]. A critical dependency is the timing of the settlement window at 12:00 UTC, which coincides with the hottest part of the day (11:00–16:00 local), making the 11:58 UTC snapshot a decisive factor[3]. Programmatic approaches would involve conditional orders triggered by real-time Wunderground data feeds, with copy-trading bots likely to front-run any sudden drops in the heat index before the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.