Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 6 July 2026, a date currently embedded in a severe East Coast heatwave that has already shattered multiple records. Programmatic traders evaluating this market would script bots to pull live data from Wunderground, filtering for the peak daily reading at KLGA, while cross-referencing historical normals to gauge the likelihood of the 0% crowd-implied probability holding. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026, meaning any automated conditional orders must execute before this deadline to capture the final resolution.

Historical precedents frame the current probability as highly suspect, given LaGuardia’s recent trajectory of extreme highs. On 2 July 2026, the airport reached 104°F, the second-highest temperature in its history, just behind the 107°F record set in 1966[7]. Furthermore, the station recently recorded its warmest midnight temperature ever at 94°F on 4 July 2026, breaking the 2013 record[3]. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% probability for a specific temperature range is statistically fragile when the region is experiencing sustained heat with daily highs forecast between 81°F and 99°F[4].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s climatological reports and Delta Air Lines’ operational advisories, as extreme heat often compounds travel constraints at LaGuardia[8]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the heatwave, which has already pushed temperatures to record levels across the Mid-Atlantic[6]. A trader should watch for any sudden shifts in the forecast or official temperature announcements, as the current heatwave has demonstrated remarkable intensity, with records falling across the East[6]. The dependency on Wunderground data means any discrepancy in reporting could alter the resolution, requiring close attention to the official source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.