Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 30 July 2026, with settlement based on the final Wunderground daily history entry for KLGA. Because this market resolves to the day’s maximum rather than a specific hourly print, a programmatic approach would usually poll the history page after the day closes, then map the reported peak into the market’s temperature range. [5]

A 0% implied probability is best read as a statement about the current information set, not as a claim that a high reading is impossible. New York’s late-July climatology is warm, with average highs around the mid-80s Fahrenheit, and the city has a long record of occasional extreme heat: Central Park’s all-time high is 106°F, while LaGuardia has reached 107°F on 3 July 1966. July 30 itself has produced very hot outcomes before, including a 98°F record in one historical account and 95°F in another, which shows that the date can support well above-average maxima in rare setups. [13][4][3][2]

For traders using tooling, the key catalysts are the forecast evolution in the final 48-72 hours, any official heat advisories, and whether the afternoon sea-breeze or cloud cover limits the peak at the airport. In practice, bots watching this market would compare ensemble forecasts, hourly airport observations, and any shift in synoptic pattern, then only reprice when a sustained change appears in the expected maximum rather than on a single warm hour. If a heat wave is signalled in the wider region, that tends to matter more than city-centre anecdotes, because the settlement source is specifically LaGuardia, not Central Park. [16][18][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.