Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 3 July 2026, specifically the highest temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome sits at 0%, yet the market frontrunner is "100–101°F" at 97%, suggesting traders expect extreme heat that breaches typical summer highs[2]. Historical data frames this expectation: LaGuardia’s all-time record is 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, and the station recently recorded a historic midnight temperature of 94°F during the current East Coast heat dome[1][7]. This recent anomaly indicates the heat dome is intensifying, making a daytime peak above 100°F statistically plausible despite the current zero-implied probability for the binary outcome.

Programmatic traders should monitor the heat dome’s trajectory and the National Weather Service’s daily normals for LaGuardia, as dependencies include cloud cover and wind direction which dictate peak temperatures[6]. A critical catalyst is the ongoing heat wave that has already pushed Central Park to 96°F and JFK to 100°F, with Newark reaching 99°F, confirming the regional intensity[9]. Traders must watch for Wunderground’s hourly updates on 3 July, as the settlement relies on the highest recorded temperature for all times on that day[2]. The market’s 97% allocation to "100–101°F" implies a high confidence that the heat dome will sustain temperatures near the 1966 record, provided no sudden cooling front disrupts the pattern[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.