Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 27 July 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the highest temperature recorded across the full calendar day at KLGA station determines the outcome. This is a straightforward instrumental reading with no ambiguity in measurement methodology—the airport's automated weather station provides continuous hourly data that traders can cross-reference in real time.

July temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 78–88°F, with extreme heat events pushing into the low 90s. The 30-year normal high for late July sits around 84°F; readings above 95°F occur roughly once per decade during summer months. The 0% crowd probability suggests either market illiquidity or a specific temperature band receiving no backing. Traders building conditional orders or algorithmic monitoring should establish baseline expectations against NOAA's climate normals for this station and recent July performance data, which remains the most reliable reference point until seasonal forecasts narrow in June 2026.

The National Weather Service Northeast Region issues extended forecasts by mid-July that typically carry useful skill for peak temperature prediction at major airports. Traders should monitor NWS discussions and medium-range model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) from approximately 10–14 days prior to settlement. Programmatic approaches might flag anomalous model guidance or sudden forecast shifts as volatility signals. The market's reliance on a single automated station eliminates weather station bias concerns that complicate some temperature markets, making this suitable for straightforward historical-analogue backtesting against comparable years.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.