Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the **highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport** during the full calendar day, with settlement based on the Wunderground daily history page for KLGA and the day’s peak Fahrenheit reading. Because the market resolves to a **range**, a programmatic approach is straightforward: pull the station’s daily maximum after the observation day closes, map it to the published bracket, and avoid over-trading before the final weather data is populated.

The current crowd price implies an unusually low chance of the upper temperature bands, but that should be read against how New York summer readings cluster around a narrow corridor rather than as a true zero-probability outcome. On the live market, the leading bracket was **84–85°F** at 41%, with **82–83°F** next at 36%, which shows traders are already concentrating around the mid-80s rather than the extremes.[1] Historical-style comparison is useful here: airport maxima typically move in small increments, so the practical edge is in tracking whether the day’s forecast shifts by one or two degrees, not in expecting a dramatic jump unless a broader heat event develops.

For catalysts, watch the hourly forecast into the morning of 26 July, because a late change in cloud cover, sea breeze, or thunderstorm timing can move the daily high enough to flip the settlement band. Heat-wave coverage is the other dependency: NYC heat emergencies can bring cooling-centre alerts and reflect a larger regional dome that supports higher maxima, with recent reporting noting possible peaks well above 100°F across the city and Tri-State area during severe episodes.[3] For users running bots or conditional orders, the useful trigger is any update that changes the expected airport high by a full degree or more, especially if the market is still sitting on a low implied price in the adjacent bracket bands.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.