Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 20 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for that specific station. Programmatic traders typically model this by ingesting historical July maxima for KLGA, then applying a localised heat anomaly factor based on forecasted urban heat index and regional humidity trends.

Historical July peaks at LaGuardia frequently cluster between 80°F and 90°F, with 82–83°F representing a statistically common median in non-extreme years. The current 0% implied probability for any outcome outside the 82–83°F range aligns with this baseline, suggesting the crowd treats the frontrunner as near-certain. Over the past decade, only two July days exceeded 95°F, while lows below 70°F occurred in just three instances, reinforcing the narrow band as the rational anchor for algorithmic positioning.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the New York metro area, particularly the daily maximum temperature projections released each morning at 05:00 UTC. A sudden shift in the heat advisory schedule or an unexpected marine layer intrusion could alter the expected peak. Recent updates from the NWS OKX office confirm stable high-pressure conditions over the region for mid-July, with no significant cloud cover or precipitation events forecasted to suppress temperatures below the 82°F threshold.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.