Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 16 July 2026, resolved via Wunderground’s daily history for station KLGA. Programmatic traders typically model this by backtesting July highs from the last decade to establish a baseline distribution, then applying a heat-index adjustment for the specific forecast window.

Historical July 16 readings in NYC cluster between 88°F and 95°F, with 92–93°F appearing as the modal range in recent summers; the current 0% YES probability on any single outcome suggests the market is either mispriced or awaiting a definitive forecast update. Comparable cases show that when crowd-implied odds hit zero early, a sharp re-rating often follows once the National Weather Service releases its 72-hour high-confidence model, which typically occurs three days before the event [2].

Traders should monitor the NWS OKX forecast page for the 16 July high-temperature outlook, specifically the 5-day ensemble mean and the probability of temperatures exceeding 90°F. A recent NWS update for the Northeast highlights an approaching heat dome that could push mid-July highs into the 93–95°F range, a catalyst that would invalidate the current 0% pricing if confirmed in the next model run [2]. Automated bots will likely front-run this signal once the ensemble spread narrows, so conditional orders tied to the NWS forecast release time are essential for capturing the re-rating.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.