Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the settlement of this weather prediction market, with data sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for station KLGA. The event is a straightforward meteorological observation: the peak Fahrenheit reading for that specific calendar day at that precise location.

Historical mid-July highs at LaGuardia typically cluster between 90°F and 100°F, with 98–99°F appearing as the market’s frontrunner at 41% probability, while 96–97°F holds 20% [1]. The current 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome (likely meaning a temperature outside the expected ranges or a specific threshold not met) suggests the crowd expects a standard summer high rather than an anomaly. Programmatic traders would backtest this against NWS historical datasets for KLGA, filtering for July 15 readings over the past decade to calibrate conditional order thresholds [2].

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast rollout and any sudden shifts in the Atlantic high-pressure ridge, which often drives heat domes into the Northeast. Traders should monitor the NWS New York office updates and Wunderground’s real-time hourly logs as the settlement window closes at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z. No recent news announcements alter the baseline, but a sudden marine layer or thunderstorm complex could depress temperatures below the 96°F threshold, invalidating the current frontrunner.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.