Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on the highest Fahrenheit reading recorded at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) on 12 July 2026, sourced directly from Weather Underground. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date, the 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the peak temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to the extreme heat already observed in early July.

Historical context from the current 2026 heat wave is critical for evaluating this probability. LaGuardia recorded a record-breaking 104°F on 3 July, shattering a 1966 record by 3 degrees, while a subsequent midnight reading of 94°F on 4 July set a new station high for that time [1][3]. This unprecedented corridor of heat across the East Coast suggests that daily highs in mid-July could easily exceed typical averages, making a 0% implied probability for a high-range outcome statistically risky if the heat persists.

Programmatic traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports issued daily for KLGA to automate data ingestion and verify real-time highs against the Wunderground resolution source [9]. Key catalysts include the continuation of the East Coast heat wave and any official announcements regarding sustained high-pressure systems, as the recent record-breaking events indicate a volatile thermal environment where standard seasonal forecasts may underestimate actual peaks [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.