Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, a metric that will dictate the resolution of this prediction market. Historical data frames the current 0% probability for the lowest ranges with stark clarity; LaGuardia’s all-time high is 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, while July 2026 forecasts suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F [3][6]. The market currently leans heavily toward the 92–93°F range at 90%, reflecting a collective view that the day will be warm but not record-breaking, consistent with recent patterns where mid-90s are dominant rather than extreme outliers [1].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor live heatwave feeds and wind dependencies, as south winds around 11 mph can elevate heat index values significantly, pushing temperatures toward the upper forecast limits [7]. A critical catalyst is the ongoing heatwave coverage at nearby JFK Airport, which serves as a proxy for regional thermal stress and often correlates with LaGuardia’s peak readings [9]. Conditional orders should be triggered by real-time updates from Weather Underground, the official resolution source, to capture shifts if the heat index exceeds 99 or if cloud cover fails to materialise as forecast [5]. The settlement window closing on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC demands precise timing for any automated strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.