Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest recorded air temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 7 August 2026, with settlement driven by Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low box. For a programmatic reader, that means the relevant workflow is to poll the station page, capture the maximum Fahrenheit value in the observations table, and ignore any conflicting headline high that may be updated on a different schedule or source layer.

A 0% implied probability is best read as a data gap rather than a strong view that the market cannot resolve in-range. Similar NYC temperature markets usually settle somewhere in the middle bins when the forecast sits near the low 90s, because a one- or two-degree difference can move the outcome between adjacent ranges. On the market page, traders were already clustering around 90–91°F and 88–89°F, which is consistent with forecast uncertainty around mixing, cloud cover, and any late-afternoon shower or sea-breeze suppression.[2]

The main catalysts are the same ones a bot or conditional order would watch: the day-of forecast updates, any revised observations at the station page, and the exact cutoff for accepting late revisions, which the market notes ends when the first datapoint for the following date is published.[2][10] Weather Underground’s NYC history page for the relevant station is the primary source to monitor, while the National Weather Service climate products are useful for cross-checking whether an unusually hot or cooler reading is plausible.[3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.