Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the most granular data source rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the actual high to fall outside whatever temperature bands are offered as resolution categories. This reflects typical August conditions in New York, where highs routinely reach the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia provide calibration points for evaluating the likelihood of extreme outcomes. The station's August average high sits around 82°F, with a record of 102°F set in 1933. Over the past two decades, readings above 95°F on any given August day occur roughly once per season, whilst days exceeding 90°F happen several times monthly. The 0% probability reading suggests the market's resolution brackets may be positioned at unusually high thresholds, or that traders are discounting the possibility of an exceptional heat event occurring on that specific date.

Programmatic traders should monitor National Weather Service seasonal forecasts and the Climate Prediction Center's outlooks released 6–8 weeks before mid-August, which flag whether the broader summer pattern favours heat anomalies across the Northeast. Real-time tracking would require automated Daily Observations scraping from Weather Underground starting early August, since the exact resolution category won't be certain until the day's peak is recorded. The distinction between Daily Observations and Day High & Low summaries matters operationally: automated systems must query the correct endpoint to avoid settlement disputes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.