Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 10 August 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters for edge cases where automated feeds diverge. The market currently prices a 2% probability on the highest temperature falling into this specific range, suggesting traders view the outcome as unlikely relative to other temperature bands available.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical data showing that extreme heat days (above 95°F) occur roughly once every three to five years during summer months. The 2021 heat dome pushed temperatures to 102°F, whilst the past two Augusts have remained within normal ranges. Reviewing comparable August 10th records from prior years provides calibration: temperatures have ranged from 73°F to 91°F on this specific date since 1950, establishing a baseline for what constitutes statistical outliers versus routine summer conditions.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service forecasts released 7–10 days prior to settlement, particularly alerts regarding high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns that could drive anomalous heat. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's extended outlook becomes actionable around late July. For programmatic approaches, integrating a Weather Underground API feed directly against your conditional order logic eliminates manual verification risk—critical given the explicit resolution methodology favouring Daily Observations over summary tables. Settlement occurs at midday UTC on 10 August, aligning with typical peak-temperature timing in the northeastern United States.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.