Highest temperature in Munich on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak air temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. With the settlement window closing at noon UTC on the day of the event, the market currently shows a 0% implied probability for a "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on. However, this flat probability masks significant dispersion across competing outcomes, where the frontrunner is 26°C at 52% and 25°C sits at 23%, indicating the market expects a warm summer day rather than a cold anomaly[1][2].

Historical patterns for Munich in early July show daily highs typically rising from 72°F to 75°F, rarely dipping below 61°F or exceeding 87°F, which frames the current 0% probability as potentially misaligned with seasonal norms[6]. Yesterday’s market for 5 July resolved to 26°C with 100% certainty, reinforcing that 26°C is a credible and frequent peak for this period[2]. A power-user evaluating this tooling programmatically would note that thin volume and eleven competing outcomes create volatility, making the 0% "YES" line a fragile signal that could shift rapidly if real-time data from the National Weather Service or BBC Weather deviates from the mean[3][5].

Traders should monitor the hourly forecast for Munich Airport, which currently predicts sunny intervals with temperatures climbing to 74°F (24°C) by 3 pm, a figure that sits just below the 26°C frontrunner but well above the 0% threshold[7]. The primary catalyst is the Wunderground resolution data, which will capture the absolute maximum for all times on the day, meaning a brief heat spike could resolve the market to 26°C or higher despite the current 19°C reading at 8 am[3]. No specific weather announcements are pending, but the dependency on the noon UTC cutoff means any late-afternoon surge will be excluded, a critical constraint for conditional order strategies that rely on intraday volatility[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.