Highest temperature in Munich on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich will experience peak daytime heating on 19 August 2026, with the highest temperature reading recorded at Munich Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market divides this into discrete temperature bands, and traders must distinguish between the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground—the binding resolution source—and the Day High & Low summary section, which occasionally diverges. For programmatic traders, this specificity matters: API queries must target the correct data table to avoid settlement disputes, and conditional orders should reference the exact Wunderground endpoint rather than relying on aggregated weather feeds that may smooth or round readings.

August temperatures in Munich historically cluster between 23–27°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 30°C during the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that historical August patterns make unlikely, or uncertainty about which band the market has defined. Comparable August days at Munich Airport over the past decade show that readings above 28°C occur roughly once per five years, providing a baseline for assessing whether the current implied odds reflect genuine scarcity or information asymmetry about the exact settlement bands.

Traders should monitor European weather models from mid-August onwards, particularly the ECMWF and GFS forecasts issued 10–14 days prior. Heatwave alerts from Germany's Deutscher Wetterdienst, if issued, would shift probabilities materially. Real-time tracking of actual readings on 19 August requires direct Wunderground access; setting up automated data pulls from the Daily Observations table eliminates manual verification risk at settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.