Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's daily high temperature on 24 July 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the city's primary weather station. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific location and date, making this a straightforward instrumental reading rather than a forecast-dependent resolution. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder pending seasonal context.

Historical July temperatures in Mexico City cluster between 24–28°C for daily highs, with occasional spikes to 29–30°C during dry spells. The city's altitude (2,250 metres) and monsoon season dynamics mean July typically brings afternoon convection and cloud cover that caps temperatures below the extremes seen in May or June. Comparable markets on Mexico City heat in prior years show that ranges above 32°C resolve rarely, whilst 26–28°C bands capture the statistical mode. Traders building algorithmic models should weight the 27–29°C bracket as the baseline expectation.

Programmatic traders monitoring this market should flag the Mexican meteorological service's seasonal forecasts (released monthly by CONAGUA) and track real-time atmospheric pressure patterns from mid-July onwards. El Niño or La Niña conditions in 2026 will influence monsoon intensity; any shift toward drier conditions in late July could push highs into the 29–31°C range. Weather Underground's historical data feed updates daily, allowing conditional orders to be set against specific temperature thresholds as the settlement date approaches, though liquidity constraints may limit execution on narrow ranges.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.