Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Historical patterns show Manila’s June highs typically range between 32°C and 35°C, rarely exceeding 35°C, with daily averages decreasing slightly by 2°F through the month[2]. However, recent extremes complicate this baseline: in April 2024, NAIA hit 38.8°C, and just days ago on 17 June 2026, a heat index of 45°C was recorded at the same station, marking an all-time record for Metro Manila[1][4]. This surge suggests the 0% YES probability may be misaligned if the market implies a threshold above 35°C, as record-breaking heat has already occurred in the same season.

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and any announcements regarding La Niña or El Niño transitions, which influence regional temperature anomalies. A recent PAGASA report confirmed the 45°C heat index at NAIA, underscoring active atmospheric instability that could persist into late June[1]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by scraping Wunderground’s daily history endpoint for NAIA, filtering for the maximum temperature on 30 June, and comparing it against the resolution threshold. Conditional orders could be triggered if real-time Wunderground data shows temperatures approaching 36°C by midday, as historical precedents indicate rapid escalation during high-pressure events. The settlement window ending 12:00 UTC ensures data from the full day is captured, reducing latency risks in automated strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.