Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak air temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. This specific metric determines the market outcome, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" result suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to historical norms or anticipated weather patterns.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: July in Manila typically sees daily highs around 88°F (31.1°C), rarely exceeding 93°F (33.9°C) [3]. Recent records show Metro Manila hit a historic peak of 38.8°C at the same airport station in April 2024 [4], while the highest temperature recorded in the last 15 days was 98.6°F (37°C) on 17 June 2026 [1]. These comparable cases indicate that while extreme heat is possible, the 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s range and the expected 31–33°C band, rather than an expectation of cold weather.

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor PAGASA weather bulletins and synoptic shifts, as Daet recently smashed a 31-year July record with 36.5°C, hinting at broader heat anomalies [7]. The primary catalyst is the daily weather schedule for the airport station, with dependencies on cloud cover and monsoon activity; July averages 30.6 rain days, which could suppress peak temperatures [8]. A power-user would script a query to Wunderground’s daily history API for real-time ingestion, cross-referencing with ABS-CBN’s live temperature alerts to validate the 38.8°C threshold [4]. No moralising is needed; the facts dictate that the range must align with the 31–33°C expectation to avoid the 0% outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.