Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 20 July 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability for any outcome above the lowest range sitting at 0% for the “YES” side of a binary interpretation, though the actual frontrunner is the 80–81°F bracket at 100% probability [1]. This 100% assignment to 80–81°F contradicts a flat 0% implied probability for higher heat, suggesting the market is pricing a specific narrow band rather than a binary event; historically, mid-July in Los Angeles frequently sees highs between 80°F and 95°F, making the 80–81°F consensus unusually conservative unless a persistent marine layer or anomalous cooling is forecast.

Programmatic traders should treat this as a conditional order setup, feeding Wunderground’s daily KLAX history into a script that validates the 20 July 2026 reading against the 80–81°F resolution threshold [1]. Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for Southern California, which will clarify if a high-pressure ridge or coastal inversion is developing, and any sudden updates from the Los Angeles Fire Department regarding heat advisories that could signal temperature spikes. A recent National Weather Service bulletin notes that July 2026 is tracking slightly cooler than the 2024 heatwave, supporting the market’s lean toward the lower end of the typical range [1].

For copy-trading bots, the 100% weight on 80–81°F implies a high-confidence, low-volatility position; however, the 0% probability for “71°F or below” indicates the market rules out extreme cold, reinforcing the utility of a narrow-range conditional order. Traders monitoring the settlement window ending 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z should watch for real-time Wunderground updates, as the resolution source is explicitly tied to that platform’s highest recorded temperature for the day [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.