Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles will record its peak daily temperature at the Los Angeles International Airport Station on 12 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that high. The current 0% implied probability for a YES outcome suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to recent volatility. Historical July averages for the city sit near 85°F (29°C), yet the region has experienced extreme deviations, including a March 2026 heatwave that pushed temperatures 25 degrees above normal and shattered records across Southern California[6][7]. More recently, an extreme heatwave struck Los Angeles on 9 July 2026, bringing scorching conditions that heightened wildfire concerns and forced safety advisories for residents[4]. A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would note that the 0% probability may reflect a mispricing if the algorithm fails to account for the persistence of such heat events, as the settlement window closes just three days after the recent July 9 peak.

Traders monitoring this event should watch the National Weather Service’s daily forecasts for the Southland, specifically any updates on high-pressure systems or marine layer breakdowns that could trigger rapid temperature spikes. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the current heatwave pattern blanketing the Southwest, which has already shattered records across the region[10]. Dependencies include the real-time data feed from Wunderground for the KLAX station, which serves as the definitive resolution source[1]. A script tracking this market would need to ingest hourly updates from AccuWeather, which currently forecasts daily highs between 80°F and 92°F for July 2026, to identify if the temperature breaches the specific range before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline[2]. The absence of a marine layer, often a cooling factor for coastal Los Angeles, remains a critical variable to monitor in the coming hours.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.