Highest temperature in London on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will settle into one of several defined ranges. The resolution hinges on a single data point pulled from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific station, making this a straightforward factual outcome with no ambiguity once the day passes. Traders evaluating this market programmatically would need to establish automated feeds from the Weather Underground API to monitor forecast updates as June approaches, since temperature predictions shift substantially in the weeks before a given date.

London's June temperatures historically cluster between 18–24°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a cooler outcome or minimal trading activity; comparing to comparable June weather markets across UK airports shows typical implied probabilities favour ranges in the low-to-mid 20s. A trader building conditional orders would benefit from tracking the Met Office's extended forecasts (updated fortnightly) and European weather model consensus, both of which become more reliable within two weeks of the target date.

The primary catalyst for repricing occurs when seasonal weather patterns solidify in late May. High-pressure systems moving across the continent or Atlantic low-pressure troughs create the variance that separates 20°C outcomes from 25°C+ scenarios. Traders with algorithmic setups should monitor the UK's spring-to-summer transition data (May temperatures, jet stream positioning) as leading indicators, since June weather at London City Airport correlates strongly with established May patterns rather than sudden shifts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.