Highest temperature in London on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at London City Airport on 24 June 2026, with the crowd currently pricing a 76% chance that the reading falls within a specific high range. For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the settlement relies on fetching the daily maximum from Wunderground’s historical data for the EGLC station, converting units via the gear icon, and executing conditional orders based on that single data point.

Historical context frames the current probability as aggressive, given that late June in London typically sees highs around 28°C, with the warm season averaging daily highs above 21°C rather than the extreme heat implied by the market[3]. Recent anomalies show that 38°C is not normal for late June and breaks the June maximum temperature record, suggesting that such extremes are outliers rather than standard seasonal behaviour[7]. Yesterday’s reading at Hampstead reached 33.9°C, indicating a heatwave is active, yet this remains below the near-record highs of 95°F seen in previous years[9][6].

Traders must monitor the Met Office’s seven-day forecast for London City Airport, specifically watching for weather warnings, wind shifts, and precipitation that could cap the temperature before the settlement window closes[5]. The National Weather Service’s hourly high temperature charts for EGLC will provide the immediate catalyst, showing whether southerly winds and falling pressure continue to drive heat or if a shift brings cooler air[2]. Current observations show 88% humidity and falling pressure at 1012mb, conditions that often sustain high temperatures but remain vulnerable to rapid atmospheric changes[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.