Highest temperature in London on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, which tracks intraday maxima in Celsius. Traders accessing the data programmatically should note that the platform's API requires manual currency conversion via the settings toggle; automated feeds pulling raw HTML will capture Fahrenheit by default, necessitating conversion logic downstream.

London's June temperatures cluster around 20–23°C on average, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. The 2022 heatwave saw June peaks exceed 30°C across southern England, whilst cooler years have settled in the 18–21°C band. Historical volatility suggests the crowd's 0% YES assessment reflects either a specific range being heavily discounted or insufficient liquidity across all buckets. Traders should cross-reference Met Office seasonal outlooks and compare recent June patterns from 2023–2025 to calibrate expectations against the implied distribution.

The key dependency is the Atlantic weather pattern in early June 2026. High-pressure systems tracking from the Azores typically drive warmer conditions into the UK, whilst low-pressure troughs from the northwest suppress temperatures. The Met Office publishes monthly outlooks roughly four weeks ahead; traders monitoring those releases can adjust positions before settlement approaches. Conditional order logic could trigger buys on specific ranges if June 1–10 forecasts signal sustained warmth, reducing reliance on manual monitoring through the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.