Highest temperature in London on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data from Weather Underground's daily archive for that specific station, which sits in the Royal Docks area and captures conditions representative of central London's microclimate rather than broader regional readings. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about range definitions, sceptical of the data source's accessibility on settlement day, or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification on exact temperature bands.

London's June temperatures have historically ranged from 18°C to 28°C, with the 30-year average high around 21°C. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings to 40°C in parts of the UK, though London City Airport recorded 35.1°C that June. Comparable June markets would typically see non-trivial probability mass distributed across the 20–25°C and 25–30°C ranges, with tail probabilities for extremes above 30°C. The current flat reading suggests either insufficient liquidity or unresolved ambiguity about the temperature brackets themselves.

A trader automating this market would need to confirm the exact range thresholds before deployment, then cross-reference Weather Underground's historical volatility for that station against seasonal forecasts closer to June 2026. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, which matters for automated resolution checkers—the highest temperature typically occurs in mid-afternoon, so data availability by noon may require manual verification or delayed settlement confirmation. API access to Weather Underground's historical records should be tested in advance to ensure programmatic resolution can execute without friction.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.