Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

Istanbul's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured against NOAA's official station data at Atatürk Airport (LTFM), with the day's peak temperature determining which range wins. The settlement mechanism requires extracting the highest hourly "Temp" reading from NOAA's time-series table and converting to Celsius if needed—a straightforward data-pull operation that lends itself to automated monitoring via API or scheduled scraping once the window closes at midday UTC.

May temperatures in Istanbul historically cluster between 24–28°C, with occasional peaks reaching 30°C during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either dismissing specific high-temperature ranges entirely or waiting for seasonal forecasts to narrow the field. Comparable May days at LTFM show that exceeding 32°C is rare but not unprecedented; the resolution hinges on whether the market's range brackets capture the actual observed maximum or leave gaps that create ambiguity.

Traders monitoring this market should track Turkish meteorological forecasts released in early May and watch for Atlantic pressure systems that could push warm air into the eastern Mediterranean. NOAA's own extended outlooks, updated weekly through April and May, will signal whether anomalous heat is likely. The key operational dependency is NOAA's data finalisation timeline—readings must be complete across all 24 hours before settlement can occur, meaning delays in station reporting could push resolution beyond the stated window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.