Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s observed peak temperature at William P. Hobby Airport is the settlement event, and at 7am UTC the market is effectively a live read on whether the day will be warm enough to clear the lower Fahrenheit bands before the noon UTC cutoff. The current 0% YES implies the crowd is not assigning any weight to a qualifying high yet, which is a useful signal for a power-user because the event is resolved from a single station reading rather than a citywide average, so the settlement price is driven by one airport microclimate rather than broader Houston conditions.

For framing, Houston summer highs often sit in the mid-90s Fahrenheit in comparable August-to-July conditions, with one recent local past-weather record showing a 95°F high, which is comfortably inside the sort of bands these markets usually target.[1] Programmatically, this is a straightforward threshold-watch: ingest the daily forecast for Hobby Airport, compare hourly max projections against the market’s temperature bins, and update only when model runs or observation data shift the expected ceiling. The low implied probability is more likely to reflect timing and the noon UTC settlement window than a view that a hot Houston afternoon is impossible.

The main catalysts are the first few morning forecast updates, any aviation or airport-specific weather changes, and whether cloud cover, rain, or an overnight boundary suppresses the day’s max before the market locks out. A bot or conditional-order setup would normally watch the latest model runs, then cross-check the Wunderground station page as the day progresses, because the final outcome depends on the highest recorded value at KHOU rather than headline weather for Houston more generally.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Houston on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.