Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s peak heat on 15 July 2026 will be measured at William P. Hobby Airport, with the official reading sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for station KHOU. The market resolves to the Fahrenheit range containing that day’s highest temperature, a straightforward weather event that power-users can model programmatically by querying historical archives and applying conditional order logic to hedge across adjacent ranges.

Historically, mid-July in Houston routinely sees highs near 98°F, with record peaks exceeding 100°F in recent years[1]. Yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest outcome suggests the market is pricing in a significant cooling anomaly, despite the frontrunner being 84–85°F at 43% and 82–83°F at 24%[2]. This divergence from typical seasonal norms frames the 0% as a potential mispricing if no major weather disruption is forecast, offering a data-driven entry for traders who back historical baselines over short-term sentiment.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for Houston, particularly any incoming cloud cover or rain events that could suppress temperatures below the 90°F threshold. A recent Houston Chronicle report notes this week’s highs are holding near 98°F, reinforcing the expectation that a drop to 84°F would require an unusual meteorological shift[1]. Programmatic approaches might auto-execute trades when forecast confidence in precipitation exceeds 40%, using Wunderground’s real-time API to validate settlement conditions before the 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.