Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at William P. Hobby Airport on 10 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for station KHOU. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific outcome below 90°F, yet the frontrunner is actually the 90–91°F range at 40%, followed by 92–93°F at 33%, reflecting model guidance for mid-90s highs under persistent high pressure and Gulf moisture [1].

Historically, July in Houston sees daily highs climb from 92°F to 95°F, rarely dipping below 87°F or exceeding 100°F, though extreme spikes occur: 104°F was recorded on 10 July 2022, and the city endured its second-warmest July on record this year with an average of 87.8°F [2][3][6]. The 0% probability on lower ranges aligns with this baseline, as temperatures below 90°F are statistically anomalous for mid-July in this location.

Programmatically, traders should monitor National Weather Service updates and short-range model runs for shifts in high-pressure persistence or Gulf moisture influx, which directly modulate peak temperatures [1]. A key dependency is the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff, requiring automated scrapers to pull the final Wunderground record immediately after 12:00 UTC on 10 July to avoid latency errors. Recent forecasts indicate daily highs ranging 85–96°F for July 2026, with an average high of 93°F, reinforcing the market’s tilt toward the 90–93°F bands [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.