Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Market context

On 27 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official figure, drawn from the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" metric published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory finalises its data—typically within 24–48 hours of observation.

Hong Kong's May temperatures cluster predictably around 28–32°C, with extremes rare but documented. Historical Observatory records show May maxima have exceeded 35°C only twice in the past two decades, whilst sub-26°C days occur roughly 5–10% of the time during the month. The current 0% crowd probability on any given range suggests either extreme confidence in a specific band or insufficient liquidity across all options. Traders building conditional orders or backtesting against Observatory archives should note that May 27 falls mid-monsoon season, when afternoon thunderstorms can suppress afternoon peaks by 2–4°C compared to clear-sky days.

Programmatic traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Meteorological Department's 10-day forecasts, updated daily at 18:00 HKT. Late-May weather patterns typically correlate with the Southwest Monsoon's intensity; any official alerts for tropical cyclone activity or heat warnings issued in the week prior would shift probability distributions sharply. The Observatory's historical dataset is machine-readable via their climate portal, allowing automated comparison against analogous May 27 records from prior years to establish baseline expectations before live trading begins.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.