Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine which temperature range the market resolves to, with the official figure published only after the relevant “Daily Extract” is finalized. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific YES outcome suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range or treating the market as too speculative until the data is confirmed.

Historically, Hong Kong’s June highs typically fall between 28°C and 33°C, with the average high around 30°C. Recent forecasts for June 2026 show daily highs ranging from 28°C to 31°C, with overnight lows between 24°C and 26°C[1][6]. An exceptionally warm February 2026 saw a peak of 27.9°C, indicating that extreme heat events are possible but not guaranteed[2]. These comparable cases suggest that while high temperatures are common, the 0% probability may reflect a lack of consensus on the precise range rather than an expectation of unusually cool conditions.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s 9-day forecast updates and the release schedule for the “Daily Extract” data, which is the sole resolution source[3][4]. A recent forecast for 13–21 June 2026 noted mainly cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms, which could suppress peak temperatures[3]. The key dependency is the finalisation of the official data; until the “Daily Extract” is published, the market cannot resolve. Programmatic approaches would involve scraping the Observatory’s climate page for the absolute daily max once available, then mapping it to the predefined ranges to execute conditional orders automatically.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.