Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 26 June 2026, specifically the highest degree Celsius reached that afternoon. This single data point will determine which temperature range the prediction market resolves to, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest range suggesting traders expect a cooler day.

Historical June data frames this low probability against recent extremes. In June 2025, the Observatory recorded a peak of 35.6°C on 10 June, matching the record maximum for the month[5]. Conversely, the highest monthly mean maximum temperature since 1885 was 32.4°C in June 2016[3]. While AccuWeather forecasts daily highs for June 2026 ranging from 27°C to 33°C (85°F to 92°F), the immediate weather pattern is shifting dramatically[1]. The Observatory recently recorded 34.6°C on a Friday, but warned that extreme heat is rapidly giving way to severe weather, including hail and a nine-day stretch of rain starting this weekend[2].

A trader approaching this programmatically must monitor the dependency on the nine-day rain event, which is expected to peak on Sunday and Monday, dropping temperatures to a cooler 26–30°C range[2]. The critical catalyst is the persistence of this low-pressure trough over southern China, which will bring heavy showers and squally thunderstorms through Tuesday and Wednesday[2]. Since the market cannot resolve until the data is finalized in the "Daily Extract", the algorithmic approach requires waiting for the official publication of the "Absolute Daily Max" rather than relying on real-time sensor feeds[4]. The forecasters predict that this active weather system will alleviate the intense heat, making the 0% probability for the highest range a rational assessment of the incoming wet conditions[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.