Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine the market resolution, with the crowd currently implying a 0% probability that the temperature will reach the highest range. A programmatically minded trader would treat this as a binary utility check: scrape the HKO’s “Daily Extract” for the “Absolute Daily Max” on the specified date, convert the value to the relevant bucket, and execute a conditional order only once the data is finalized.

Historical June peaks in Hong Kong frame the current probability. In June 2025, the Observatory recorded 35.6°C on 10 June, matching the record maximum for the month[1][10]. The monthly mean maximum for June 2025 was 32.4°C, the highest on record for June, driven by a strong subtropical ridge[1]. By contrast, a late-afternoon sea breeze or increased cloud cover can cap daily highs near 29°C, as seen in other recent cases where temperatures fell just below the 30°C threshold[3]. These precedents suggest that while extreme heat is possible, the 0% crowd-implied probability may reflect a lack of confirmed heatwave signals for 25 June specifically.

Traders should monitor the HKO’s daily forecasts and any announcements regarding the subtropical ridge’s position, as its strength directly influences peak temperatures. Recent reports indicate Hong Kong hit 34.6°C on 5 June 2026, the highest daily maximum so far this year[9], but no official forecast has yet confirmed a similar spike for 25 June. The key dependency is the HKO’s publication of the “Daily Extract” for 25 June, which must be finalized before the market can resolve[5]. Until that data is available, the market remains in a utility-testing phase, awaiting the definitive temperature reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.