Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 24 June 2026, specifically the absolute maximum in degrees Celsius. This single data point will determine which temperature range resolves the prediction market, with settlement finalised once the official Daily Extract is published.

Historically, June in Hong Kong has seen extreme heat, with the highest monthly mean reaching 32.4°C in 2016 and 32.3°C in 2015[2]. More recently, 10 June 2025 hit 35.6°C, matching the record maximum for June and marking the city’s hottest day of that year so far[9][3]. Given this pattern, a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range appears misaligned with the climatic baseline, suggesting traders should programmatically back-test historical daily maxima against the market’s range brackets to identify statistical edges.

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s release schedule for the Daily Extract, as the market cannot resolve until data is finalized[1]. Key catalysts include real-time weather bulletins on very hot weather advisories and any sudden shifts in monsoon activity or humidity levels that could suppress peak temperatures. Recent reports confirm Hong Kong is already experiencing its year’s highest temperature at 33.7°C as of midday, indicating the heatwave is active and likely to persist through late June[8]. A power-user would automate alerts for these bulletins and cross-reference them with the Observatory’s historical June rankings to forecast the likely resolution range before the official data drops[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.