Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 19?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 19 June will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Max** reading, so the cleanest way to handle this market is to model it as a single-day outcome on the settlement feed rather than as a broader weather view. In late June, Hong Kong is normally already in its hot, humid season: June average daily highs are about 86–89°F, with AccuWeather’s June 2026 view showing highs around 88–94°F, which is roughly 31–34°C. [1][2]

That backdrop matters because the current **0% YES** implies the market is not pricing even a modest chance of an unusually high maximum. For a trader building this programmatically, the useful comparison is not the monthly average but the upper tail of recent June behaviour: the HKO’s June rankings show how extreme values can cluster over time, while recent five-day and monthly-history tools can be used to sanity-check whether the day is likely to land in the usual low-30s band or spike beyond it. [6][8][5]

The main catalysts are operational rather than dramatic: the HKO must publish the daily extract, and the market cannot resolve until that final data appears. Because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, bots or conditional orders should watch for the Hong Kong Observatory’s publication timing, then compare the one-decimal Celsius value against the market’s predefined temperature bins before the deadline. The practical risk is delay, not ambiguity, since the resolution source is explicit and the daily extract is the sole arbiter. [3][4][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.