Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 16 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final data release typically occurs within days of observation. This market requires traders to predict which temperature band will contain the recorded high, with resolution contingent on official publication from the Observatory's climate information system.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28–32°C for daily maxima, though extremes have reached 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity or that all active positions favour lower temperature ranges. Comparable markets on Hong Kong Observatory data show resolution delays of 3–7 days post-observation are standard, meaning traders cannot expect immediate settlement confirmation. Reviewing the Observatory's five-year June records provides calibration: the median daily maximum sits around 30°C, with roughly 15% of days exceeding 33°C.

For programmatic approaches, traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's automated data feeds and set conditional orders tied to seasonal weather pattern shifts. The Asian summer monsoon onset typically influences mid-June conditions; recent meteorological bulletins from the Observatory (available via their monthly climate summaries) flag whether anomalous heat is forecast. Temperature forecasts from regional models become increasingly reliable 10–14 days prior, allowing traders to adjust positions as June approaches. Integration with the Observatory's historical Daily Extract archive enables backtesting of temperature distribution assumptions across comparable years.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.