Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 14 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement hinges entirely on official Observatory data availability; markets cannot resolve until the figure is finalised and posted to their climate information system.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28–32°C for daily maxima, though extremes have reached 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity, late-stage market maturity, or participants awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts before committing capital. Comparable June settlements from prior years show that range-based resolution markets on Hong Kong Observatory data typically see late clustering once the actual date approaches and meteorological models converge. Traders building automated feeds should note that Observatory updates occur on a fixed schedule; historical data lags by one to three business days.

The primary catalyst remains the monsoon transition period: mid-June marks the onset of the southwest monsoon, which typically moderates temperatures through increased cloud cover and rainfall. Current climate patterns and any anomalous pressure systems developing in May 2026 will signal whether June 14 sits in the cooler or warmer quartile of the historical distribution. Conditional order logic should account for the hard settlement date (12:00 UTC on 14 June) and the subsequent publication lag, meaning real-time position adjustments become impossible once Observatory data enters their processing queue.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.