Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

Hong Kong's highest daily temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until the data becomes available through their Climate Information Services portal. This is a straightforward instrumental measurement with no discretionary interpretation—the Observatory operates a standardised network of weather stations across the territory, and the daily maximum is the single highest reading captured during the calendar day.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster predictably around 28–32°C for daily highs, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical issue with market creation or an unusual settlement structure. Comparable weather markets typically see non-zero probabilities across all temperature bands; the absence of any implied likelihood warrants checking whether the market's range options have been properly configured and whether traders can actually select positions.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule. Data typically appears within 24–48 hours of the settlement window close, though operational delays can extend this. Conditional order logic should account for the resolution lag—setting alerts for the Observatory's Daily Extract updates rather than treating 12:00 UTC on 13 June as a hard data availability deadline. Cross-referencing with real-time weather forecasts from the Observatory's public interface in early June will provide the most reliable pre-settlement signal, though actual recorded temperatures often deviate from forecasts by 2–3°C.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.