Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, reported to one decimal place, which determines which temperature band resolves YES. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity across all brackets.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28–32°C for daily maxima, with occasional spikes above 33°C during early-season heat waves. The Observatory's records show variability driven by monsoon transitions and tropical systems; comparing 11 June across recent years reveals typical ranges of 29–31°C, though 2015 recorded 33.9°C and 2012 reached 34.4°C. Traders building conditional orders or automated triggers should reference the Observatory's 30-year climate normals (mean maximum ~31°C for mid-June) as a baseline for range-bracketing logic.

Publication lag presents the primary operational constraint: the Observatory typically finalises Daily Extract data within 48 hours of the observation date, meaning resolution cannot occur before 13 June at earliest. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June could shift outcomes materially; the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts (published monthly) flag monsoon intensity and system proximity. Traders integrating this market into multi-leg strategies should flag the Observatory's data release schedule and build settlement buffers accordingly, as delayed publication has historically extended resolution windows by several days.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.