Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the Hong Kong Observatory’s recorded daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 7 July 2026, specifically whether it will reach or exceed 30°C. This single data point, published in the official “Daily Extract”, will determine the market’s resolution, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggesting traders believe the threshold is unlikely to be met despite Hong Kong’s typical July heat.

Historical July peaks in Hong Kong provide critical context for interpreting this low probability. The highest monthly mean maximum temperature recorded was 32.9°C in July 2007, while 2025 saw a daily maximum of 34.3°C on 7 July alone[5]. AccuWeather’s 2026 forecast for Hong Kong indicates daily highs ranging from 86°F to 95°F (approximately 30°C to 35°C), with an average high of 89°F (32°C)[2]. These figures suggest that a 30°C threshold is historically common, making the 0% probability appear counterintuitive unless specific short-term weather models predict cooler conditions for that exact date.

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time updates from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional weather schedules, particularly any announcements regarding monsoon activity or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures. Recent news from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed July 2025 as the city’s hottest month on record, with daytime temperatures reaching 33°C, highlighting the volatility of summer peaks[8]. A conditional order strategy would require automated scripts to pull the latest “Absolute Daily Max” data as soon as it is finalized, ensuring execution before the settlement window closes on 7 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC. The key dependency remains the official publication of the Daily Extract, which is the sole resolution source[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.