Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the Hong Kong Observatory’s recorded absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 6 July 2026, measured to one decimal place and finalized in the official Daily Extract. Traders currently assign a 0% probability to the market resolving as “YES” for any outcome outside the 30–32°C range, which aligns with official guidance and historical climatology for early July in Hong Kong[1].

Historically, July in Hong Kong sees average highs between 32°C and 28°C, with the warmest months typically being July and August, where average temperatures hover around 32°C[3]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 predicts normal to above-normal temperatures, reinforcing the likelihood of the 30–32°C bracket[4]. Comparable cases from recent years show that daily maxima rarely dip below 30°C during this period, making the current 0% probability for other ranges a rational reflection of established patterns.

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule, which finalises data post-12:00 UTC on 6 July, and cross-reference real-time forecasts showing a medium-high probability of significant rain that could suppress peak temperatures[10]. Recent weather outlooks indicate mainly cloudy conditions with light rain patches, which may temper the maximum but not push it below the 30°C threshold[9]. Traders should also track ENSO status updates and climate model revisions, as these directly influence the above-normal temperature projection cited by the Observatory[4]. No major announcements are expected beyond the standard data publication, so the primary dependency remains the timely release of the finalized Daily Extract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.