Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the absolute daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 15 July 2026, resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that figure. With settlement closing at 12:00 UTC on the event date, the 0% crowd-implied probability for the current frontrunner outcome suggests a data lag or a misalignment in the underlying probability distribution, as historical mid-July peaks in Hong Kong typically range between 28°C and 33°C. Programmatic traders should verify the API endpoint for the "Daily Extract" to ensure their scripts are polling the correct "Absolute Daily Max" field once the dataset finalises, rather than relying on real-time station feeds which may lack the official audit required for resolution.

Historical data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows that July 15 has frequently recorded highs of 29°C or 30°C in recent years, making the 41% probability assigned to the 29°C range on Polymarket a statistically grounded position despite the conflicting 0% signal for the specific query outcome[2]. A trader building a conditional order bot would anchor their logic on these comparable cases, treating the 28°C and 29°C ranges as the primary liquidity zones while monitoring the official CSV feed for the station code HKO to confirm the final value[1]. The catalyst for resolution is strictly the publication of the finalized Daily Extract; no weather announcements or forecast updates will alter the outcome, as the market resolves solely on the recorded historical maximum.

Traders must watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s data publication schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the relevant Daily Extract is available online[2]. The dependency is binary: if the data is not published by the settlement deadline, the market remains open, but once the CSV file appears, the resolution is automatic. Recent weather patterns in Hong Kong show scattered clouds and temperatures around 27°C in the early morning, but the daily maximum is determined by afternoon peaks which historically exceed current readings[3]. Automated systems should implement a retry loop for the data.gov.hk endpoint to capture the finalized value immediately upon release, ensuring execution before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.