Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing mid-July heat, with the Hong Kong International Airport recording 86°F (approximately 30°C) at 5:30 am on 12 July 2026, while yesterday’s peak hit 92.6°F (33.6°C) on 11 July[5][6]. The market’s 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the day’s absolute maximum to fall outside the specific range offered, likely because recent data shows July 2024 peaked at 34.8°C and July 2025 was the hottest month on record with a monthly maximum of 35.7°C[1][2][3]. Historically, July is the hottest month in Hong Kong with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C), meaning any range below 33°C would be statistically improbable given the current heatwave context[4][8].

For a programmatic trader, the primary dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” publication, which finalises the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” to one decimal place[10]. The settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 12 July 2026, creating a tight window for data ingestion before resolution. Traders should monitor real-time feeds from the Observatory’s climate page, as the market cannot resolve until the official data is published[1]. Recent reports confirm July 2025 had the highest number of hot days since 1884, reinforcing the need to verify if today’s peak aligns with or exceeds that record[1]. Automated bots should scrape the specific URL for the 2026 Daily Extract to trigger conditional orders once the figure is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.