Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves to the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 11 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date, the outcome depends entirely on the official “Absolute Daily Max” published in the Daily Extract. The current 0% implied probability for any specific range suggests the crowd expects no data yet or treats the event as unresolved until the Observatory releases the final figure.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs near 32°C and record-breaking peaks exceeding 35°C in recent years. In July 2024, the city saw its hottest month on record, with daily means reaching 30.8°C and multiple records shattered [1][2]. Programmatic traders should model temperature distributions using the Observatory’s 30-year climate normals [7], then overlay real-time forecasts like AccuWeather’s 2026 projection of 36–34°C highs [3]. The 0% probability likely reflects a lack of finalized data rather than a belief in impossibility.

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule, which typically publishes finalized data within 24–48 hours after the observation date. The key dependency is the official confirmation of the “Absolute Daily Max” in the relevant extract, available at the Observatory’s climate portal [8]. No external announcements or weather alerts will override this source; resolution is strictly tied to the published figure. A recent SCMP report on July 2024’s record heat underscores how quickly extreme values can emerge, making real-time data ingestion critical for automated strategies [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.