Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine which temperature range the market resolves to, with the official figure published in the Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract”.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with the average high reaching 89°F (31.7°C) and record monthly maximums hitting 35.7°C in July 2022, which broke the previous record set in 2020 [1][2]. The 2026 forecast suggests daily highs between 85°F and 95°F (29.4°C–35.0°C), aligning with typical summer peaks [3]. Given that 0% YES implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall below the lowest defined range, this probability appears inconsistent with historical patterns unless the range is set unusually high.

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s climatological data feed for the “Absolute Daily Max” on 10 July, cross-referencing it with real-time weather station outputs from Hong Kong International Airport [6]. Key catalysts include any official heatwave announcements or updates to the Observatory’s monthly weather summary for 2026, which may be released shortly after the settlement window [10]. Recent reporting confirms July 2026 has already broken multiple heat records, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme temperatures [5]. Traders should watch for the finalisation of the Daily Extract, as the market cannot resolve until this data is officially published [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.