Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on 2 August will be the Hong Kong Observatory’s **Absolute Daily Max** for that date, published in the final Daily Extract and rounded to one decimal place. In practice, traders can treat it like a late data-release market: the settlement input is not the live station feed, but the Observatory’s finalised climatological record, so programmatic tracking should poll the Daily Extract rather than infer from intraday weather apps or forecasts. [10]

Historically, early August in Hong Kong is hot enough that the upper bands are often plausible, but the market should be read against the city’s longer-run distribution rather than a single day’s forecast. The Observatory has recorded extreme August heat before, including 36.6°C on 22 August 2017 and 35.4°C during an exceptionally hot spell on 5 August 2024, while climatology pages put typical August mean maximum temperatures around 31–32°C. [5][13][10] That context matters for pricing: a 0% implied probability can still be a thin-market artefact if most order flow is concentrated in neighbouring temperature bins, especially when the likely outcome depends on whether cloud, rain, or a typhoon-related surge suppresses the afternoon peak.

For traders using tooling, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s daily publication cadence, any weather warnings issued ahead of the afternoon maximum, and whether there is a lag before the climatology page is updated. Hong Kong’s 2025 August weather was already shaped by persistent rain and a record-breaking daily rainfall event, showing how quickly a wet spell can cap temperatures even in midsummer. [7][9] A sensible automated approach is to watch the HKO daily summaries, compare the observed maximum against the market’s strike buckets, and only update conditional orders once the final Daily Extract is available.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.