Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 13 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, measured to one decimal place. This is a straightforward instrumental reading with no subjective interpretation—the Observatory operates a standardised network of weather stations across the territory, with data typically finalised within 24–48 hours of the observation date.

August is Hong Kong's peak summer season, with historical daily maxima consistently ranging between 32–34°C. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological impossibility; such extreme clustering typically signals low liquidity or a market awaiting initial price discovery. Comparable August days from the Observatory's records show that temperatures below 31°C are rare (occurring in roughly 5–10% of cases) and above 35°C are similarly uncommon, with the modal range occupying the 32–34°C band. Traders building conditional orders or automated monitoring systems should note that the Observatory publishes preliminary readings on their website within hours, though the official Daily Extract used for settlement may take slightly longer to appear in their climate database.

The primary dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule; no external announcements or forecasts drive settlement, only the recorded instrumental data. Traders integrating this market into broader weather-tracking bots should flag the 48-hour post-date window for data availability and build in buffer time before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline on 13 August 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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