Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat and heavy rainfall in the subtropical zone. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature range suggests traders are betting against a record-breaking heatwave, yet historical data shows June highs regularly reach 32°C, with the absolute record at 36.6°C [1]. Recent May 2026 data confirms Guangzhou experienced its hottest month in history, with temperatures climbing to 36.3°C during continuous sunny spells [5]. This precedent indicates that while 0% probability may reflect caution, the region’s climate is increasingly volatile, with extreme hot days above 33°C doubling since the 1960s across East Asia [3].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the Baiyun station, setting conditional orders to trigger if temperatures breach 34°C before 10:00 UTC. Key catalysts include the subtropical high-pressure system’s intensity and potential typhoon activity, both typical in June [1]. Traders must also watch for official meteorological announcements regarding heatwave warnings, as recent trends show summer arriving earlier in over 80% of studied cities [3]. The settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 27 June 2026 requires precise timing; any delay in data ingestion could skew resolution. Given the 280 mm average rainfall and occasional heavy storms, sudden cloud cover could suppress temperatures, but the dominant high-pressure influence often sustains excessive perspiration and heat [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.